12 Three-Year-Olds vie for bragging rights in Lexington

Horseracing Betting Lines

04/16/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Unless we see a handful of defections between now and May 1, it looks as if the $300,000 Lexington Stakes will not be a major factor in determining the Kentucky Derby lineup.

The only horse with a chance of reaching the starting gate on the first Saturday in May is Todd Pletcher's Connemara, and even if the son of Giant's Causeway hits the wire first, Pletcher isn't 100% certain he'll send the chestnut colt into the first leg of the Triple Crown.

Still, the Grade 2 event is a compelling betting race featuring 12 horses of equal talent. Even the morning line oddsmaker had difficulty determining a favorite as four colts are between 4 and 6-1.

The tepid early favorite is Uptowncharlybrown, who'll be the sentimental choice after losing his trainer, Alan Seewald, to a deadly heart attack earlier in the week. Linda White, his longtime assistant, will saddle the fifth-place finisher from the Tampa Bay Derby.

Uptowncharlybrown does receive a positive rider change going from Daniel Centeno to Garrett Gomez but the long-striding son of Limehouse is still an unknown over the Polytrack surface. It's quite possible even with the jockey switch that the colt could regress in the Lexington.

As mentioned earlier, Connemara is the lone horse in the race with a chance to be draped with the blanket of roses in two weeks. He ran third in his last start - the Lane's End Stakes at Turfway Park - the first time he failed to finish first or second in five lifetime appearances.

Connemara has had multiple problems getting out of the gate with the rest of the horses and it severely affected his chances in the Lane's End after hopping at the start. Don't expect his penchant for poor breaks to improve in the Lexington as he has now broke slowly in four of his five career efforts.

Kettle River is another colt with something to prove after a disastrous eighth- place finish in the Sham Stakes back on March 5. In that race, jockey Brice Blanc got him in all sorts of trouble right from the start breaking dead last in the 10-horse field. Remaining in that position after checking slightly around the far turn, the son of Congaree was finally free and clear through the stretch but had little in the tank inside the final furlong.

As is the case with Uptowncharlybrown, a rider change from Blanc to J.J. Castellano could move the horse forward. The unknown factor is Polytrack as Kettle River has never set foot in a race on that type of synthetic. Nevertheless, his workouts at Keeneland could indicate a liking for the surface, especially after he breezed five furlongs in 1:00 3/5 earlier in the week. If he's ever going to get back to his winning ways, this Saturday could be the day.

One horse that shouldn't have any problems with Polytrack is Krypton. The son of Rock Hard Ten prevailed in an allowance race on opening day at Keeneland by over six lengths, and Kiaran McLaughlin sends him right back 15 days later.

He should break quickly from the rail but the key will be for jockey Alan Garcia not to get caught in an early speed duel with Exhi. If those two colts go too fast in the first half of the race, it is doubtful either one will find himself in the winner's circle.

Speaking of Exhi, he's the second Todd Pletcher-trained horse in the race besides Connemara. Don't forget, the four-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer has won the Lexington the last two years with Advice and Behindatthebar.

Exhi was abused by Odysseus in a Tampa Bay allowance race in mid-February, losing by 15 lengths. However, he had a built-in excuse that day since it was his first start off a 116-day layoff.

The son of Maria's Mon bounced back to win the Rushaway Stakes at Turfway Park, the same day as the Lane's End. Ridden by Russell Baze, the bay colt led by a full length throughout, with splits of 47 2/5, 1:11 2/5 and 1:37 3/5 for four, six and eight furlongs, before finishing up the 1 1/16 in 1:44 2/5.

For comparison purposes, the internal fractions of the Lane's End were 48 2/5, 1:12 3/5 and 1:37 4/5, with the winner, Dean's Kitten, running a slower time at each point in the race. In addition, the horse on the lead for all three splits wound up ninth and last.

Robby Albarado will take him as far as he can go on Saturday but don't expect similar results since Krypton will be breathing down his neck for much of the race.

LONGSHOTS TO CONSIDER

I mentioned earlier that the Lexington is a very contentious race, so there will be a few decently-priced horses to keep a watchful eye on.

Call Shot comes to Keeneland off a third-place finish to Radiohead and Homeboykris in a one mile allowance race at Gulfstream Park on February 27. He ran his final quarter-mile that day in 24 1/5 showing that the 1 1/16-miles won't be too much of a burden.

Don't forget, the $235,000 yearling purchase was actually favored over (and defeated) American Lion last September. He then followed up that effort with a win (via disqualification) over Polytrack at Keeneland.

Call Shot has been working well over the track as evidenced by his 58 2/5 bullet on April 5 - his fastest work of 2010. There's a good chance he'll be at least 10-1, so pluck a few dollars down on the son of Tale of the Cat.

Prince Will I Am makes his first start in almost two months since an eighth- place run in the Fountain of Youth. In fact, he's now lost twice to Eskendereya by over 30 lengths. On the other hand, the Kentucky-bred already has a victory at 45-1 and a second-place finish at 42-1 so he's proven to be able to fool the public on more than one occasion. His late closing style should pay dividends at Keeneland so don't rush to throw him out of the exotics.

Distorted Dave comes into the Lexington off a huge score at Santa Anita, knocking off both Big Man Has a Sign and Indian Firewater by over four lengths. Trainer John Sadler has been hot as a pistol with Sidney's Candy and Line of David winning Grade I stakes this month so toss Distorted Dave at your own risk.

Chief Counsel is another colt with a license to improve off his last outing. The Bill Mott-trained three-year-old was the next-to-last priced horse in the Lane's End but finished a decent fourth in his first graded stakes appearance.

He comes into the Lexington off just one posted workout since that race but it was a dandy 46 4/5 breeze over the track last Saturday. It will be interesting to see if he is able to carry some of that early morning speed into the race, especially since his only start at Keeneland was a gate-to-wire victory over First Dude, who just finished third in the Blue Grass.

Unfortunately, he's stuck all the way on the outside in post 12, so even if Kent Desormeaux wants some early speed he might be forced wide if Exhi, Heavenville and Kettle River all break sharply from his inside.

Heavenville comes into the Lexington off a 6 1/4-length win in an ungraded state-bred stakes event on Louisiana Derby day at the Fair Grounds. His 1:44 2/5 final time for the 1 1/16-mile race compared very favorably to Mission Impazible's victory in the Derby so keep that in mind when you see him go off at 20-1 or higher.

Selections: 1) Kettle River; 2) Call Shot; 3) Distorted Dave. The longshot is Prince Will I Am.

MEDAGLIA d'AMOUR RETURNS

After knocking off entry-level allowance foes on March 14, Medaglia d'Amour takes a giant step up in class this Saturday in the Grade II Santa Barbara Handicap at Santa Anita.

The four-year-old filly also must contend with the grueling 1 1/4-mile distance after running a flat mile last month. However, she's bred to run all day as her dam, Izara, is a half-sister to Fraise, and her granddam, defeated John Henry in the 1983 Oak Tree Invitational.

Tuscan Evening, the expected favorite, comes into the Santa Barbara riding high a three-race stakes winning streak so Medaglia d'Amour's price should be a square one.

If she is able to come through with a victory, there's no telling how good the Ben Cecil-trained filly could be.

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NFL Football Betting


BILLS (+10) at Steelers SPORTSBOOK LINES

It's impossible to gauge how a team will react after something like the Steve Everett situation, and it probably doesn't matter. That being said, the Bills are going to lose several games this year where they keep things close but fall short in the end to superior teams. Ben Roethlisberger and company could have a field day against Buffalo's decimated defense, but I like the Bills to cover.

BENGALS (-7) at Browns SPORTSBOOK LINES

All you can ask out of your NFL team is that it has a plan. You may not always agree with it as a fan, but as long as it appears the organization is going in some sort of direction, you have to go with it. Which brings us to the Cleveland Browns. You flip a coin to determine whether Chuck Frye or Derek Anderson should start the preseason opener. You start Frye in Week 1, but pull him in the first half. And then you deal him to the Seahawks for a sixth-round pick? Hmm... the Bengals could get six turnovers again this week.

COLTS (-7) at Titans SPORTSBOOK LINES

Tennessee signed ex-Colts cornerback Nick Harper in the offseason so that should help slow down Peyton Manning. Just ask Jason David and the Saints. Oh wait... One of these weeks, I'm going to learn to not pick against Tennessee, which has won seven of its last eight games. But it's not happening against Indy.

TEXANS (+6.5) at Panthers SPORTSBOOK LINES

Houston's Mario Williams, the first pick in the '06 draft, has more touchdowns than Reggie Bush after one week. Somehow I don't see that lasting. Meanwhile, Carolina bottled up what was expected to be a pretty high-octane offense in St. Louis in Week 1. Could this be the Panthers' defense everyone expected last year? Maybe. This feels like a 20-16 Carolina win.

RAMS (-3) vs. 49ers SPORTSBOOKS LINES

Absolutely love this game. Everyone's favorite pick for this year's surprise team -- the 49ers -- laid an egg on Monday night (not that anyone was watching with the game ending in the middle of the night for those of us on the East Coast). St. Louis wasn't much better, delivering a lackluster effort against the Panthers that included two Steven Jackson fumbles and panic from his fantasy owners. Jackson rebounds this week, and the Rams get their first win.

PACKERS (+1.5) at Giants SPORTSBOOKS LINES

Do you really trust this guy to win an NFL game if Eli Manning can't go? I say no. I'd feel alot better about this Packers team if it had any semblance of a running game, but I still think Green Bay's defense is good enough to give it a 2-0 start.

JAGUARS (-10) vs. Falcons SPORTSBOOKS LINES

Does it scare me to pick Jacksonville to cover a double-digit spread after it scored just 10 points last week against the Titans? Absolutely. But can I bring myself to pick Atlanta under any circumstances? No. Check out this poll on ajc.com. It asks what Atlanta's most urgent deficiency is: offense, defense, specials teams or all of the above. "All of the above" has 57 percent of the votes. Ouch.

SAINTS (-3) at Buccaneers SPORTSBOOKS LINES

I'm picking way too many road teams this week. Oh well. New Orleans has had some time to reflect on its lackluster showing in the opener, and the Buccanneers just aren't a very good football team. Anyone else surprised Tampa Bay hasn't made a move to sign Byron Leftwich? I thought that's what they do.

VIKINGS (+3) at Lions SPORTS BETTING LINES

Run the ball and stop the run. Minnesota can do both, and that will keep them in a lot of games this season. Even though it was only one week, Adrian Peterson looks like he was a steal at No. 7 in last year's draft. Not only will he produce, but Peterson delivers excitement to what otherwise would be one of the league's most boring teams.

DOLPHINS (+3.5) vs. Cowboys SPORTS BETTING LINES

Lost in the Tony Romo lovefest is just how bad the Cowboys' defense was last week. I know they're banged up, but Dallas' 'D' allowed 438 yards to the Giants' offense, and backup running back Derrick Ward averaged 6.8 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Cam Cameron's decision to split carries between Ronnie Brown and Jesse Chatman sounds about as can't-miss as Larry David's plan to show up to Marty Funkhouser's party a night late. Still, gotta go with Miami to cover at home.

SEAHAWKS (-2.5) at Cardinals SPORTS BETTING LINES

I'm probably missing something, but this game seems too easy. Arizona blew Monday night's game against the 49ers in typical Cardinals fashion, and the Seahawks beat Tampa Bay by two touchdowns. Love Seattle in this one.

BRONCOS (-9.5) vs. Raiders SPORTS BETTING LINES

Special teams was a major story line in Week 1. Take a look at the Broncos. They had to rush on to the field to get a Jason Elam field goal as time expired against the Bills. Denver drove into Buffalo territory on eight of 10 drives but came away with just a pair of field goals and a touchdown. Look for more scoring from the Broncos this week against an Oakland defense that gave up 36 points to Detroit in Week 1.

BEARS (-12) vs. Chiefs SPORTS BETTING LINES

Everyone talks about Rex Grossman when dissecting the Bears' offense, but Chicago's quarterback got no help in last week's loss to the Chargers. Meanwhile, Kansas City confirmed what we all thought while watching Hard Knocks: The Chiefs are going to stink this year. It could be a rough first month for Larry Johnson fantasy owners. Kansas City's RB was limited to 43 yards on 10 carries in Week 1, and the Chiefs face the Bears, Vikings and Chargers the next three weeks, all formidable run defenses.

RAVENS (-10) vs. Jets SPORTS BETTING LINES

A big dose of Willis McGahee and a usual sound defensive effort will give the Ravens their first win. According to Football Outsiders, no team in the NFL rushed only three defenders on pass plays last year more than the Jets. And according to my special Jets correspondent Ben Stauber, New York did the same in Week 1. Whoever starts at quarterback for the Ravens should have all day to throw.

PATRIOTS (-3) vs. Chargers

Friends and I were discussing how Bill Belichick goes about paying his $500,000 fine for cheating. Does he just write one check to the NFL? Do you need some sort of clearance to make such a monstrous financial transaction? I guess I shouldn't complain about the security deposit I have to put down on my new apartment. Anyway, two of the league's best teams square off in what should be a good one Sunday night. The Patriots always respond well just when you think they're in trouble. And their offensive attack was the story in Week 1.

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting.