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03/09/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Another year and another championship for Kansas, which captured its sixth straight Big 12 regular-season crown with a 15-1 finish. The No.1 ranked Jayhawks are the top-seed for the sixth time in the 14-year history of the Big 12 Tournament and they received a bye in the first round. Also earning first-round byes are Kansas State, Baylor and Texas A&M, as they all finished tied for second at 11-5. After the tie-breakers were worked out, the Wildcats landed the second seed followed by the Bears and Aggies.
The Missouri Tigers will begin their title defense in the first round, as they placed fifth in the conference at 10-6. Texas and Oklahoma State tied for sixth at 9-7, with the Longhorns grabbing the sixth seed and the Cowboys the seventh. The bottom five teams all had losing records in the conference and were seeded accordingly. The winner of this annual event moves on to the NCAA Tournament with an automatic bid.
The 14th-annual Big 12 Tournament gets underway at the Sprint Center on Wednesday, with the ninth-seeded Texas Tech Red Raiders clashing with the eighth-seeded Colorado Buffaloes. This is a rematch of Saturday's regular- season finale in which Colorado won a 101-90 shootout in Boulder. The Buffs won their last three games of the regular campaign, while the Red Raiders have dropped seven in a row heading into the postseason. Neither of these teams have won this tourney, and Texas Tech has captured both prior meetings with Colorado in the event.
The fifth-seeded Missouri Tigers defend their title against 12th-seeded Nebraska in the second game of the first round. The Tigers, as the third seed, won their first-ever Big 12 Tournament championship last season and went on to the Elite Eight of the Big Dance. Missouri, which has posted back-to-back 10- win campaigns in the Big 12 for the first time since 1999-00, is 15-12 all- time in this event. This is the sixth time Missouri and Nebraska are meeting in the Big 12 Tournament, with the Huskers winning the last two encounters. The Huskers though, finished with a league-worst 2-14 mark and they are just 1-9 over their last 10 outings.
Bitter rivals come together in the third game, as the 10th-seeded Oklahoma Sooners tussle with the seventh-seeded Oklahoma State Cowboys. One year removed from an outstanding campaign, the Sooners disappointed big time due to injuries and inconsistency, finishing just 4-12 within the conference. Oklahoma enters the postseason riding an eight-game losing streak and will need to win this event in order to avoid its first losing campaign since 1981. The Cowboys meanwhile, were the only Big 12 team to defeat Kansas, as they knocked off the top-ranked Jayhawks, 85-77, on February 27th. Oklahoma State features the Big 12 Player of the Year in James Anderson, who will try to carry the program to its first title in this tourney since 2005.
First-round play wraps up with the sixth-seeded Texas Longhorns taking on the 11th-seeded Iowa State Cyclones. The Longhorns soared to No.1 in the nation at one point this season, but fell on hard times down the stretch and finished the regular campaign outside the Top 25. Still, Texas had enough to reach the 20-win plateau for the 11th straight season at 23-8 overall. The Longhorns are 17-13 all-time in this event and despite five championship game appearances, they have never won the title. Iowa State meanwhile, is coming off another poor showing with just a 4-12 mark within the conference. The Cyclones, however, ended a 21-game losing streak to ranked opponents with a triumph of Kansas State on Saturday. In 2000, Iowa State won this tourney, but it hasn't had much luck since.
The top-ranked and top-seeded Kansas Jayhawks will make their tourney debut in the quarterfinals on Thursday, as they await the winner of Texas Tech/Colorado pairing. The Jayhawks are the face of the Big 12, having won or shared 10 of the 14 regular-season titles while capturing this tourney on six occasions. Kansas has won at least 11 games each season since in the inceptions of the Big 12 in 1996-97 and they have notched 15 league victories on four occasions. The Jayhawks, who are 29-2 overall, own a 25-7 record in this event, but had their run of three-straight titles stopped last season.
Once the doormat of the Big 12, the fourth-seeded Texas A&M Aggies are now consistent contenders for a top finish. The Aggies earned a first-round bye for the third time in five years following a run in which they were never seeded higher than seventh. Texas A&M though, has only three wins in this event and that ranks last of any member. The Aggies, who have registered six straight 20-win campaigns, will tussle with the winner of the Nebraska/Missouri matchup.
The quarterfinal round continues with second-seeded Kansas State hooking up with the survivor of the Oklahoma/Oklahoma State pairing. The No.2 seed is the program's highest in the Big 12 Championship, as Kansas State earned a first- round bye for the fourth straight season. The Wildcats 24 overall wins and 11 conference victories are their most since the 1987-88 campaign. The team, though, is just 7-13 all-time in this event and has yet to even reach the finals.
The third-seeded Baylor Bears had a terrific run in this tourney last season and will collide with the victor of the Iowa State/Texas clash in the quarterfinals. As the ninth seed last season, the Bears played the role of giant-killer, advancing all the way to the finals before losing to Missouri. Baylor took that experience and applied it to this season, capturing 11 conference wins for the first time in Big 12 history. With that came the program's highest seed and first bye in this event.
<< 2010 Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament Preview
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 57th-annual Atlantic Coast Conference
Tournament is on tap this week from the Greensboro Coliseum and will run from
opening round action on Thursday, March 11th through the championship game on
Sunday, Ma
<< Nathan has significant ligament tear
Minneapolis, MN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Minnesota Twins closer Joe Nathan
reportedly has a significant ligament tear in his right elbow.
The Minneapolis Star-Tribune said tests revealed damage to the ulnar
collateral ligament.
<< Kings cruise past listless Blue Jackets
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jonathan Quick needed to stop just 11 shots
for his third shutout of the season and Los Angeles scored four first-period
goals on its way to a 6-0 clobbering of Columbus.
Alexander Frolov had a goal and t
<< Wofford beats Appalachian State, earns first NCAA berth
Charlotte, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Cameron Rundles had 20 points to help Wofford
capture the Southern Conference Tournament title with a 56-51 win over
Appalachian State.
The Terriers (26-8) captured their first title and gained the au
2010 Conference USA Tournament Preview >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - For the first time in five years, someone
other than Memphis is the top seed in the Conference USA Tournament, as the
Texas-El Paso Miners won the regular-season title with a 15-1 finish. Winners
of 14 straig
Rockets take fading playoff push to Washington >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The chances of the Houston Rockets making the playoffs are
fading like a flattop. Tonight they'll have to get past the Washington Wizards
at the Verizon Center and hope for some help around the league.
Houston is 4 1/2 gam
Streaking Magic hope to make Clippers disappear >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The acquisition of Vince Carter has paid off so far for
Eastern Conference power Orlando, which will shoot for its sixth straight win
tonight versus the Los Angeles Clippers in the second test of a three-game
homestand at Amw
Sixers, Pacers clash in Indy >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia 76ers finally got off the schneid with a
big win at Toronto this weekend, and hope that carries over into Tuesday's
road bout against the Indiana Pacers at Conseco Fieldhouse.
Philadelphia was able to snap
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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