Johnson hopes for record-setting start in Marlins-Giants tilt

Baseball Betting Lines

07/27/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Josh Johnson could put himself into the record books when the Florida Marlins continue their four-game series with the San Francisco Giants this evening at AT&T Park.

Johnson has gone 13 straight starts without allowing more than two earned runs, a streak dating back to May 8 when he surrendered three runs to the Washington Nationals. The only streak longer was Mike Scott's amazing 14-game run with the Houston Astros in 1986.

"I'm just going out there with the mindset, if something's working, don't change it," Johnson said. "I try to keep my team in the game. I don't know what to tell you. I try not to put any extra pressure on myself. I do what I'm doing in each game."

Johnson lowered his league-leading earned run average to 1.61 Thursday against Colorado but did not get a win, as he allowed a run and five hits in 6 1/3 innings. He is 10-3 on the season.

However, the Giants have had their way with Johnson, who is 0-3 with a 3.00 ERA in four starts against them.

The Marlins continued to creep up the standings on Monday, as Dan Uggla and Mike Stanton homered to back the strong pitching of Ricky Nolasco in Florida's 4-3 win.

Nolasco (11-7) allowed four hits, a run, walked a batter and had seven strikeouts over 6 1/3 innings to win for the sixth time in his last seven starts.

"I understood those guys were putting up some really good at-bats, fouling of a lot of good pitches," Nolasco said. "I just wasn't going to give in. Obviously I wanted to keep my pitch count down, but I wasn't able to pitch deeper in the game."

Stanton drove in two and Leo Nunez surrendered a run in the ninth, but left the potential tying tally at third for his 24th save as the Marlins posted their eighth win in 10 games.

Barry Zito (8-6) permitted eight hits and three runs over 6 1/3 innings and suffered his first career loss when facing Florida. Zito, who had been 5-0 in six starts versus the Marlins, had three strikeouts.

Aaron Rowand belted a pinch-hit two-run homer in the seventh inning, but the Giants had a four-game winning streak broken and lost for just the fourth time in their last 19 contests. Buster Posey extended his hitting streak to 19 games, the second-longest by a San Francisco rookie since Hall of Famer Willie McCovey's 22-gamer in 1959.

Getting the call for the Giants tonight will be righty Matt Cain, who has won his last two starts. Cain was brilliant Thursday in Arizona, as he scattered three hits over eight scoreless innings to run his record to 8-8 while lowering his ERA to 3.10.

Cain beat the Marlins back on May 6 and is 3-0 with a 2.83 ERA in six starts against them.

San Francisco swept a three-game set from the Marlins earlier in the year and has won five of the last seven meetings in the series.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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